Think before taking Matt Olson in your fantasy baseball draft

Earlier than you click on “draft” in your digital draft room or scream your choose’s identify throughout your buddy’s basement, be sure to ask your self these questions: Is that this participant price being taken at this level? Who else is offered? Can I get extra bang for my buck later?

In the case of first basemen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt would be the first 4 taken. The final of the top-tier on the place is Matt Olson, an awesome power-hitter who’s glued to the center of a loaded Braves lineup.

Crucial quantity to think about when drafting Olson is that this: 35.28. That’s his common draft place, in response to Fantasy Alarm. He’s a top-five first baseman, however that doesn’t imply his ADP gives your workforce the most effective worth in that spot.

Now, ask your self these questions:

1. Is that this participant price being taken at this level?

In his first yr as Freeman’s substitute in Atlanta, Olson ranked eighth in RBIs (103), eleventh in homers (34) and twenty fourth in slugging proportion (.477). His common exit velocity ranked within the prime 3 % of the league, and his hard-hit fee was within the prime 4 %.

Although his .276 BABIP signifies there was room for enchancment, know that his common (.240) dipped greater than 30 factors after he hit .271 in 2021. His stroll fee (10.7 %) was down from 13.1 % in 2021. His strikeout fee jumped from 16.8 % in 2021 to 24.3 %. He stole no bases after having 4 in 2021.

Olson’s numbers additionally dipped within the second half for a second straight yr. After hitting .255 with 17 homers, 60 RBIs and a .828 OPS within the first half in 2022, he hit .219 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs and a .765 OPS after the break. That features hitting .193 with a .695 OPS over the ultimate 31 video games — when fantasy homeowners wanted him most.

2. Who else is offered?

For round that very same ADP, you can have well-rounded gamers corresponding to Francisco Lindor (36.65), Randy Arozarena (39.97) or Cedric Mullins (47.58). They could not provide Olson’s energy or RBI whole, however do provide higher averages, runs and one thing Olson will by no means present: stolen bases. You additionally might seize a top-15 beginning pitcher — corresponding to Spencer Strider (35.2), Max Scherzer (40.07), Brandon Woodruff (40.3) or Carlos Rodon (42.68).

3. Can get I extra bang for my buck later?

Frightened concerning the first basemen obtainable when you bypass Olson? Don’t be. First base is a deep place — like, absurdly deep.

You possibly can wait about 4 rounds and seize Houston’s Jose Abreu (79.92). Nearly 60 picks after Olson is ripped off the boards, you’ll be able to snag a teenager with tons of upside in Roto Rage favourite Vinnie Pasquantino (94.52) — who hit .346 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 16 runs, a 15-21 strikeout-walk fee and .960 OPS over the Royals’ ultimate 43 video games in 2022.

Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe (100.25), Colorado’s C.J. Cron (119.98) and Arizona’s Christian Walker (121.22) — the 2022 waiver-wire darling who smashed extra homers (36) and had an ever-so-slightly higher common (.242) and OPS (.804) than Olson — are stable mid-round choices.

The White Sox’s Andrew Vaughn (141.03) might be had at nice worth, as can Cleveland’s presumptive cleanup hitter, Josh Bell (166.62). Roto Rage additionally believes Milwaukee’s Rowdy Tellez (170.32), who smashed 35 homers and drove in 89 runs, ought to have an enormous goal on his again. Certain, he hit .219 in 2022, however his BABIP (.215), xBA (.252) and xSLG (.479) level to a man who was unfortunate.

Boston’s Triston Casas (218.05) is an intriguing late-round possibility, as are Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (260.13), Cincinnati’s Wil Myers (262.27), the Angels’ Jared Walsh (291.27) and Tampa Bay’s Harold Ramirez (350.9).

There will even be possibilities to snag this yr’s model of Walker, or a late-season hero corresponding to Joey Meneses, off the waiver wire in the course of the season.

Olson is undoubtedly an awesome fantasy possibility, however Roto Rage believes the worth is excessive — particularly while you perceive what else is on the market.

First base

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor
2. Freddie Freeman, LAD
3. Pete Alonso, NYM
4. Paul Goldschmidt, StL
5. Matt Olson, Atl
6. Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
7. Nathaniel Lowe, Tex
8. Jose Abreu, Hou
9. Rhys Hoskins, Phi
10. C.J. Cron, Col
11. Christian Walker, Ari
12. Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
13. Josh Bell, Cle
14. Rowdy Tellez, Mil
15. Anthony Rizzo, NYY
16. Andrew Vaughn, CWS
17. Jake Cronenworth, SD
18. Ty France, Sea
19. Jose Miranda, Min
20. Josh Naylor, Cle
21. Brandon Drury, LAA
22. Luis Arraez, Mia
23. Seth Brown, Oak
24. Triston Casas, Bos
25. Miguel Vargas, LAD
26. Trey Mancini, ChC
27. Spencer Torkelson, Det
28. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
29. Wil Myers, Cin
30. Isaac Paredes, TB
31. Joey Meneses, Was
32. Dominic Smith, Was
33. Brandon Belt, Tor
34. Wilmer Flores, SF
35. Jared Walsh, LAA
36. Luke Voit, FA
37. Garrett Cooper, Mia
38. Jesus Aguilar, Oak
39. Joey Votto, Cin
40. Carlos Santana, Pit
41. Harold Ramirez, TB
42. Ji-Man Choi, Pit
43. Eric Hosmer, ChC
44. LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
45. Bobby Dalbec, Bos

Third base

1. Jose Ramirez, Cle
2. Manny Machado, SD
3. Austin Riley, Atl
4. Bobby Witt Jr., KC
5. Rafael Devers, Bos
6. Nolan Arenado, StL
7. Gunnar Henderson, Bal
8. Alex Bregman, Hou
9. Max Muncy, LAD
10. Jose Miranda, Min
11. Matt Chapman, Tor
12. Alec Bohm, Phi
13. Ryan McMahon, Col
14. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pit
15. Eugenio Suarez, Sea
16. Brandon Drury, LAA
17. Anthony Rendon, LAA
18. Justin Turner, Bos
19. Josh Jung, Tex
20. Josh Rojas, Ari
21. Yandy Diaz, TB
22. Luis Urias, Mil
23. Jeimer Candelario, Was
24. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
25. Yoan Moncada, CWS
26. Ha-Seong Kim, SD
27. Eduardo Escobar, NYM
28. Luis Rengifo, LAA
29. Isaac Paredes, TB
30. Jon Berti, Mia
31. Josh Donaldson, NYY
32. Brendan Donovan, StL
33. Wilmer Flores, SF
34. J.D. Davis, SF
35. Rodolfo Castro, Pit
36. Gio Urshela, LAA
37. Brian Anderson, Mil
38. Jace Peterson, Oak
39. Spencer Steer, Cin
40. Jordan Walker, StL
41. Kyle Farmer, Min
42. Ramon Urias, Bal
43. Joey Wendle, Mia
44. David Villar, SF
45. Brett Baty, NYM

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