Any time a pitcher has an arm injury, it’s hard to trust them the second they return. Well, unless that pitcher’s name is Jacob deGrom.
It is hard to believe that he will be the same pitcher as before the injury. Is he able to pitch enough innings to make him a viable fantasy player? Was there a need to make “Speed 2: Cruise Control”? (Obviously it wasn’t needed, especially without Keanu, but Willem Dafoe as the villain? C’mon, it should’ve been awesome.)
Only thing you need to ask is: Does your team have the ability to win your league? If not, any pitcher with past experience is well-suited to return from injury.
Miami’s Edward Cabrera is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 28.8 percent strikeout rate, 12.8 percent walk rate and 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate in his first six starts.
In three starts since returning on Aug. 5 from a bout with elbow tendinitis that cost him close to two months, Cabrera has been on fire, tossing 14 ²/₃ scoreless innings while striking out 21 (12.9 per nine) and limiting opponents to a .113 average.
Cabrera was ranked third among starters who had pitched at least 10 innings this month. He was also one of two pitchers with a 0.00 ERA (Chris Bassitt was the other). He also had the third-lowest opponents’ average and the ninth-best swinging-strike rate (15 percent). The only problem: He walked 12.5 % of the batters that he faced, the 10th worst mark in the majors.
Despite throwing just 30 ¹/₃ innings this year, Cabrera is one of those talented arms you can’t help but be drawn to. It doesn’t hurt that he is on a team with a reputation for developing young pitchers.
Among starters with a minimum of 30 innings pitched, Cabrera’s swinging-strike rate ranked 12th, his 10.68 strikeouts per nine was the 17th-best mark in the major,s and his .152 opponents’ average was the best in the league.
The 24-year-old has a wide range of nasty stuff. He uses a four-seamer that reaches 96 mph 23.4 percent of time. His opponents are hitting.111 against him (.171 xBA). And that isn’t even his best (or most-used) pitch.
Cabrera’s 92.9 mph changeup is used the most (36.1 percent usage). Opponents are hitting.159 against him with a.162 expected batting average,.182 Slugging percentage, and 31.1 percent whiffrate. Opponents are also hitting him.045 with his slider (.158xBA), which he uses 17.2 percent of all the time and has a 47.5 percent whiffrate. He even dominates with his curveball, throwing it 15.4 percent of the time with a .143 opponents’ average and 37.1 whiff rate.
Why is this Marlin hard-throwing on only 36.4 per cent of ESPN rosters
Outside of missing all of July and a good portion of June, Cabrera hasn’t pitched deep into games; he has completed six innings twice this year and only once in seven starts in 2021. His 12.8 percent walk rate ranks third among major league pitchers who have pitched at least 30 innings. His strand rate (90.4%) and his.209 BABIIP are unsustainable and, along with his 2.96 expected ERA and 3.58 FIP, indicate that there will be regression.
It is reasonable to be skeptical, considering he has only allowed one earned run in five of six starts. It is good to understand his numbers will not remain as pristine as they’ve been over this small six-game sample.
But metrics don’t point to a pitcher who will completely implode and be an untrustworthy option. (FYI – Cabrera should be trusted Monday when he takes on the Athletics. They entered the weekend with a league average of.215. Roto Rage believes Cabrera has the potential to be a great young talent and deserves a spot on the roster, provided he stays healthy.
Pick him up … now!
Here’s a look at some other, mostly underowned, arms who can become a nice piece to your rotation:
Last Saturday, Lance McCullers was the Astros’ first pitcher since Game 4 of the ALDS on October 12, 2021. Although he only walked 19% of the batters that he faced (a bit of expected rust), he earned victory after allowing two hits in six scoreless innings while striking out five. McCullers was the most-added pitcher in this week’s ESPN leagues and was rostered Friday night.
Seattle’s George Kirby (37.2 percent rostered) has not lost since June 27 — going 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA, 44-6 strikeout-walk rate and .599 opponents’ OPS. All three of those wins came this month and he has allowed no earned runs in 14 of his 17 appearances this season. As incredible as the 24-year-old rookie has been, there is one thing to be mindful of: The Mariners may start to limit his innings, as he already has pitched 90 ²/₃ innings this season, a career-high at any level (college included).
Before taking the mound for the Royals on Friday, Brady Singer (48.1 percent rostered) was 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA, 58-15 strikeout-walk rate and .226 opponents’ average over his previous eight starts. He had not only pitched at least six inning in each of those outings but also allowed three earned runs only once (and only four times in his first 19 starts).
There are two other young Marlins worth your attention: Lefties Braxton Garret (12.2 percent rostered), and Jesus Luzardo (22.9 percent). Garrett was 0-4 with a 4.22 ERA and .274 opponents’ average over his past four starts, but has a 12.4 swinging-strike rate and 31.4 percent called-strikes-plus-whiff rate. Luzardo was 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA and .191 opponents’ average in his first three starts since returning from a strained forearm that kept him on the IL since May. He is striking out 11.35 in nine starts, while opponents are limited to a.181 standard. He has a 13.8 per cent swinging strike rate, and 31.2 per cent called strikes plus whiff rate.
Big hits
Julio Urias SP, Dodgers
Hasn’t lost since June 12 — going 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA, 67-11 strikeout-walk rate and .198 opponents’ average over his past 11 starts.
Vaughn Grissom SS, Braves
The rookie had at least one hit and at least one run in eight of his first nine big league games — going 13-for-32 (.406) with two homers, seven RBIs, 11 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.113 OPS.
Justin Steele SP, Cubs
Has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his past eight starts — going 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA, 50 strikeouts and .245 opponents’ average.
Max Muncy, Dodgers 1B/2B/3B
Although he was still hitting just.185 for the season he was hitting.320 with six runs, 13 RBIs and 10 runs in his first 14 games this month.
Big whiffs
Riley Greene OF, Tigers
The rookie walked 44 times in his first 27 games of half-time, the most in the majors. He is now 4-for-35 (.114), with three RBIs, 16 strikeouts and four runs scored in his eight previous games.
Pablo Lopez SP, Marlins
Last win came on July 26, and he has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, three homers allowed and .378 opponents’ average in his past four starts.
Matt Chapman 3B, Blue Jays
After hitting.325 in July and a 1.05 OPS in July, he reached.148 with 23 strikeouts in his first 15 games of the month.
Sean Manaea SP (Padres)
Allowed 10 home runs and 35 runs (29 earned) over his past eight starts, going 3-3 with a 6.87 ERA and .321 opponents’ average in that span.
Check swings
- Christian Walker from Arizona was at.223 for this season. However, he was 15th in the majors’ average of.349. He also had six homers as well as 17 RBIs, which tied him for the most majors in August. The 31-year old also hit.280 with 23 RBIs, which is sixth most in the majors since the break. He is still available in ESPN leagues at 35 percent.
- Baltimore’s Felix Bautista is rostered in fewer than 35 percent of ESPN leagues, but had five saves and two holds, with a 1.08 ERA, 25-4 strikeout-walk rate and .113 opponents’ average, in his past 16 appearances entering Friday. The five saves he made in that span were made in nine appearances (1.03, 1.93 ERA,.188 opponents).
- Since being traded to the Cardinals, Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA (1.80 FIP), 17-3 strikeout-walk rate and .203 opponents’ average.
- Equally as impressive as Montgomery, Jose Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA, 16 strikeouts and .200 opponents’ average in his first three starts for St. Louis. He is also 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last five starts and is available for 60 percent or more ESPN leagues.
- Tommy Pham, despite only hitting.248 and 21 strikeouts in his 15 first games with the Red Sox has been a reliable source of runs (11). He also had 10 RBIs, three homers, and a.749 op in that span.
- Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals rookie, is still available to play in 75 percent of ESPN leagues. He’s 21-for-58 (.362) and has five homers. He also has nine RBIs. Eight runs, six walks, and a 1.105 OPS in his 16 first games this month. He was batting.309 with seven homers. 13 RBIs, a 20-13 strikeout rate, and a.893 OPS.
Name of the team for the week
Schwarber Shop
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