Crystal Palace will host Aston Villa on Saturday, after a disappointing loss to Arsenal and a draw away to Liverpool as +1500/15/1 underdogs. Palace has been rated as a favorite home at +150 by bookmakers, while Villa is priced at +185 and the draw at around +220.
Although Palace is the favorite to win this match, these odds suggest that Aston Villa would be preferred if this contest were played at a neutral venue. According to the market, Villa is the stronger team currently. I’m not so sure that should be the case.
Aston Villa and Palace are very similar in many ways. Both sides are determined to be a well-structured defensive team that will sacrifice some offensive flair for staying strong.
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Although Palace was seventh in goals allowed, the underlying metrics indicated that it had one the best defenses of the Premier League. The Eagles allowed fifth-fewest box entries, fourth-fewest goals expected to be non-penalty and third-fewest big scoring chances. These numbers were even more impressive at home, where they allowed just 17 goals over 19 matches last season.
Sports betting
Crystal Palace has proven to have a tremendous difficulty to break down. They should be able manage an attack that finished last season 18th in big scoring chances and 14th in expected goals. Crystal Palace is better than Aston Villa right at the moment.
The playCrystal Palace +155
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