Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards

UFC 278 is the final PPV for the summer. It will be live from Salt Lake City, Utah. As promised, we have Luca Fury here to discuss his betting picks and breakdowns of the main event — a title fight at the welterweight division.

Unfortunately, the audio problems during our recorded conversation made us sound almost robotic. We move on without the video and have written breakdowns, analyses and quotes from our distinguished guest.

Notice that we skipped the main card opener, Lucie Pudillova vs. Yanan Wu. There is no betting value as this is a coin flip fight. We see it as a high-variance match where anything could happen.

Be sure to check out Luca’s UFC podcast, where he gives analysis and picks, even on future fights. If you’re new to betting on UFC, please visit our how-to-bet on UFC page.

UFC 278 Picks and Predictions Today

Kamaru Usman (-350), vs. Leon Edwards ( (+275)

Kamaru Uman and Leon Edwards will face off in a rematch at 170lbs for the UFC title.

This is an exciting spot because Edwards could win many striking interchanges. It is difficult to imagine Usman winning an upset, however, Usman is so dominant in his grappling it becomes very difficult. Fury’s read is a little unconventional.

He explains, “Usman has improved his striking and is good to very good, but not elite. Edwards will be looking to use the numerous openings that Usman has left for counters throughout the fight. He is an elite wrestler. Edwards has a legit shot to hurt his opponent in these exchanges if Usman falls too in love with his wrestling.”

Fury is placing his bets on Edwards ML (300) at these prices. In the event that he wins striking exchanges, Fury hopes to win a decision or a KO/TKO victory and Usman per decision (-115). A win by Usman would effectively be a death sentence for any of your bets.

However, if you get a different result, you will win at least half of the fight.

UFC 278 Picks

• Erich: Usman wins in ‘Over’ 2.5 rounds -179 (PointsBet)
• Fury: Betting strategy — Edwards ML (+300) .5u + Usman by decision (-115) 1.15u (FanDuel) — win minimum .5 unit if Usman does not win by finish.

Sports betting

Paulo Costa (-400) vs. Luke Rockhold (+310)

Paulo Costa takes on Luke Rockhold in a middleweight fight that is intense going in. A wide line here as Costa is a massive favorite for this weekend’s fight with the former champion, Rockhold.

Fury says, “Honestly, I feel like both fighters are fades at this point, and I am not sure that either is particularly committed to MMA. Costa has had weight problems and pulled out from fights. Rockhold claims he can model and do all the other stuff. I’d like to bet against both of these fighters in the future.”

Fury explained that Rockhold is unlikely to sit down and jab his way into victory. Fury says that this fight will end in Costa by knockout or Rockhold submission.

“People won’t expect this since Rockhold’s offensive wrestling isn’t great. If he does get it down somehow, his submission game is one of the best in the middleweight division.” Since both fighters have durability problems, among other deficiencies, expect this one to be over early.

UFC 278 Picks

• Fight doesn’t go to decision -280 (BetMGM)

Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili

A huge fight in the UFC bantamweight section as Jose Aldo, former champion, faces Merab Dvalishvili.

This one, Luca & I had uniform reads on this fight as Aldo can be very difficult to take down. He also has the striking edge.

“Merab is a relentless takedown artist and shoots tons of takedowns. But there’s a reason. When he gets the takedowns, he does not hold people down.” Aldo defends takedowns at a 90% clip per UFCStats, so it might be even more difficult for Dvalishvili to bring his opponent to the mat on Saturday.

Luca notes, judge’s are not rewarding you for takedowns if you are not doing damage or hunting for submission. This means that judges will not reward fighters who are fence pushing and hunting for takedowns. WillReward the striker who does damage.

UFC 278 Picks

Tyson Pedro (-800), Harry Hunsucker (1,550)

Let’s just start with this, do not put Tyson Pedro in your parlays.

Harry Hunsucker has lost three straight by first round knockout. “He’s more or less just a brawler.” Fury said. “Pedro was once considered a solid prospect, but that has faded and I cannot justify anyone laying the price on Pedro at -800, and there are very few fighters worth laying that price on. Jon Jones in his prime. Tyson Pedro is not even a consideration here.”

Hunsucker has never seen the second round in all 12 of his MMA fights. Hunsucker in round one by KO/TKO is +1000. This fight is a pass.

Alexandr Romanov (-410) vs. Marcin Tybura (+290)

Marcin Tybura takes on Alexandr Romanov, the undefeated heavyweight fighter. This fight will be the big one on ABC so it should be a huge draw.

Romanov has dominated his opponents by his amazing grappling, with multiple takedowns during every fight and a 69% accuracy for takedowns. This is the eighth-best UFC history!

Fury told The Post, “I like Romanov as a prospect as he can run the division as a grappler at the top of the division. He has great submissions and ground and pound for TKOs.” Romanov has finished three of his four wins in the UFC.

Fury agrees with many that Romanov does this. However, at -400, there’s little value. Instead, both fighters will likely have a win condition via finishing. Romanov can win by submission or via KO/TKO via the ground and pound. Tybura could catch Romanov with his feet in striking exchanges and win a TKO. The fight to end in the distance at -165 is an acceptable bet. If it moves to below -200, this is a pass.

UFC 278 Picks

Fight ends within the distance –165 (BetMGM).