August 27th marks the official start of college football season. But before we get into betting on games for 12 hour every Saturday, there are futures wagers with lots of value.
Futures betting isn’t for everyone because it takes months for a potential payout. Futures betting is something I enjoy and have done for more than three decades. Each summer, I review every college football team to determine the best futures value.
Here are my five favourite plays for the 2002 college football season.
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2022 College Football Futures Bets, Picks and Predictions
Syracuse Over 4.5 wins -115 (BetMGM)
Syracuse was 5-7 last year, but they went through a stretch where they lost three straight games by a field goal in October to Florida State (33-30), Wake Forest (40-37 OT), and Clemson (17-14). The Orange were actually only two plays away from being an 8-win team.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Syracuse is returning 80 percent of last season’s production, which ranks 15th in the country. As I mentioned, Syracuse is now one of college football’s most experienced teams.
Sometimes, production return can be overrated. If a team is returning a ton of players but they weren’t very good last season, improvement isn’t guaranteed. I don’t believe that’s the case with SU.
Is it crazy to think this team can match last year’s win total and cash the Over 4.5? I say it’s crazy to think they won’t.
Sean Tucker, a star running back, is the most important person returning to Syracuse’s campus this fall. Tucker, a star running back in the country, rushed for 1,496 yards (6.1YPC) and 14 touchdowns when he was a freshman. He and quarterback Garrett Shrader combined for 2,277 yards on the ground, and Shrader didn’t even start the first three games.
Tucker will run behind an experienced offensive team this season. They were responsible for SU’s 16th-best rush defense, rushing for 213.5 yards per contest last season. My projections project Syracuse as a top-20 running offense in 2022. Last season, 19 top-20 rushing offenses won five or more games. Navy was the exception.
Jason Beck, quarterback coach, and Robert Anae, offensive coordinator, are both from Virginia. They helped the Cavaliers rank second in passing defense with 392.6 yards per match. If the passing game can just be average this year, Syracuse’s offense will be tough to stop.
UConn looks like Wagner, based on the schedule. The opener against Louisville is the key. If the Orange wins that one, it should be easy sailing to Over 4.5 victories
Sports betting
Air Force to win Mountain West +450 at BetMGM
My biggest CFB futures bet is Air Force winning the Mountain West Conference at +450. I love everything that the Falcons team does and believe they have what it takes to win the MWC title.
Air Force returns 15 starters from last season’s 10-win team. That’s the most starters the Falcons have returned in eight years, and keep in mind, this is a team whose three losses last season were all by seven points or less. Air Force was only a few possessions away from an undefeated season in 2021 and barely missed the MWC Championship Game.
This Falcons team, led by quarterback Haaziq Davids, is the most talented in a decade. Daniels is a whiz at running Air Force’s spread option offense that led the nation in rushing at 327.7 yards per game last year. Add in a defense that should again be one of the conference’s best after ranking fourth in the country, and there is a lot to like about the Falcons.
This schedule is perfect for a title run. Air Force gets Boise State at home where it’s 36-9 since 2014 and misses Fresno State. I think the Falcons can eclipse last year’s 10 wins, so getting them +450 to win the conference is a steal.
Purdue to win Big Ten West +550 (Caesars)
The Boilermakers are fourth in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska (+240), Iowa (+500) and Wisconsin (+125). That’s good value for a team with 15 returning starters and the division’s best quarterback in Aidan O’Connell.
O’Connell threw for 3,712 yards and 28 touchdowns last season on his way to second-team All-Big Ten honors. Not only is O’Connell arguably the most underrated player in the Big Ten, I think he may be the most underrated player in the country. While Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska all have question marks at the quarterback position, O’Connell returns to lead an offense that finished second to only Ohio State in the Big Ten last season.
The Boilermakers also bring back nine starters from a defense ranked 34th for scoring and 48th overall in 2021. Two key players, DE George Karlaftis (defensive end) and LB Jaylan Alexander (linebacker), are gone. The offense can still win the Big Ten Championship Game if it can post similar numbers as last year.
Last season Purdue’s four losses came against Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio State, so they do need to perform better against tougher competition. This bet will likely go to Minnesota and Wisconsin along with an Iowa home game.
Win or lose: +550 on the Boilermakers for the Big Ten West win is too good to miss.
Kansas State to Win Big 12 +1200 – BetMGM
The Big 12 looks wide-open this season with multiple teams that you could make a strong case for winning the conference. Kansas State is my favorite team at +1200.
I mentioned that it is important to return production, but that quality of that production is equally important. The Wildcats return 14 starters from last season’s 8-5 team, with 10 being All-Conference players. This means that Kansas State will return the most quality players on both sides of a ball among all the Big 12 teams.
The Wildcats have lost Skylar Thompson as quarterback, but they have replaced him with Adrian Martinez, a Nebraska transfer. Martinez’s career was not without its ups and downs, but his forte is running the football. He will fit in well with a Kansas State offense, which likes to run the quarterback and throw high-percentage pass.
Martinez had to deal with injuries last season. He suffered a high ankle strain and then tore the labrum in November. However, Sports Injury Central gives him a SIC Score of 92 for the upcoming season, so health shouldn’t be an issue. Look for Martinez and running back Deuce Vaughn to lead one of the nation’s top rushing offenses.
Chris Klieman is my favorite CFB coach. He always gets to the best of his talent. This might be Klieman’s most talented team since he arrived at Kansas State in 2019 and one that has a legitimate shot at reaching the Big 12 title game.
New Mexico State Over 2.5 wins -120 (Caesars)
Let’s end with my hold your nose, stinker special. Last year, I bet UTEP on 3 wins. They hit in October. New Mexico State may not cash as early as they would like, but I believe they have a schedule that could produce at least 4-5 wins this season.
It is a tough schedule with road games at Oklahoma State (TCU), Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia. K-State could still be favored in other games. If we can get a few more on the road, we will be in great shape come December.
Jerry Kill is back after retiring as Minnesota’s head coach in 2015 because of health issues. Kill hit the transfer portal hard to improve New Mexico State’s talent, and even though this was a two-win team last season, the defense should be much improved with nine starters returning and a few instant impact transfers.
Diego Pavia, a new quarterback who led New Mexico Military Institute in a JUCO national title last season, is the X factor in this bet. Pavia seems like the perfect fit for Kill’s multiple-formation offense.
New Mexico State is able to play at Wisconsin and Minnesota even though they are playing early in the year. The Aggies are a 12-point dog against Nevada, but the Wolfpack are a very weak team. That’s a game New Mexico State could steal.
Even if they lose the opener, the games against Hawaii FIU New Mexico, UMass, UMass and Lamar are all winnable. With that schedule, three wins in Kill’s first year is a realistic goal.
Besides, you can’t call yourself a degenerate until you’ve sweated New Mexico State football games for four months hoping for three wins.
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