The Coalition Avenir Quebec party has dominated the polls at the beginning of the provincial election campaign. It is not who wins but who comes in second.
Experts believe that Francois Legault, the CAQ Leader, is still in the lead with five weeks before Quebecers vote Oct. 3.
While Legault’s party is the clear leader in the polls – with support more than double that of its closest adversary – the battle for second is a much tighter race. There were four parties polling between 10-20% as the campaign began Sunday. They included the Quebec Liberal Party (Quebec solidaire), the Conservative Party of Quebec (Parti Quebecois) and the Parti Quebecois (Quebec Liberal Party).
“It’s really a battle to emerge from this encampment by four parties that are in a completely marginal position,” said Andre Lamoureux, a political science professor at Universite du Quebec a Montreal.
Lamoureux, in an interview Monday, stated that all four opposition parties are facing difficulties that will make it difficult for them to overcome.
Lamoureux noted that the CAQ government made several moves over the last four years that were pleasing to its French-speaking nationalist base.
They include tougher language laws and a secularism law that restricts religious symbols within certain branches of civil service. There are also demands from Ottawa to increase immigration control.
As a result, Lamoureux says, they’ve “pulled the rug out from under the feet” of the once-dominant PQ, which now sits in fifth place in most polls.
The Quebec Liberal Party, despite coming in second in most surveys, has largely lost the francophone vote – something Lamoureux attributes to the party’s decision to ‘cut itself off from the (Quebec) nation” due to its opposition to the CAQ’s language and secularism laws.
The Conservative Party of Quebec, which was not a factor in the 2018 election, has been gaining popularity in the Quebec City area but could be limited by what Lamoureux describes as “almost libertarian” promises to dismantle Quebec’s public daycare system, to increasingly privatize health care and to oppose all COVID-19 restrictions.
Danielle Pilette is an associate professor in strategy, social responsibility, and environment at Universite du Quebec a Montreal. She says that the race to be the official Opposition is between Quebec Liberal Party, a left-wing sovereigntist, and Quebec solidaire.
She said Monday that to stand out, a party must answer compelling questions about the cost of living.
“The proposals which will be the most examined are those which propose tax catch-ups for the less-favoured classes, then catch-up or compensation in relation to the cost of housing and the cost of transport,” she said.
Pilette stated that these issues, especially those related to housing, are one Quebec solidaire is well-equipped to address. She indicated that the party might have room to grow in Montreal’s working-class areas, as well in other urban centers, which recently elected progressive mayors.
She stated that it will be difficult for Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade. He is being challenged by small, pro-anglophone parties based in Montreal. She also said that the leader is struggling to deal with the legacy of Liberal governments that were plagued by ethics scandals, unpopular policies, and other problems. However, she said, the party – other than QS – is the only other candidate for Opposition “by default” because the others don’t have a wide enough base.
Eric Belanger, a political science professor at McGill University, says identity issues – particularly protection of the French language – and the environment are the topics that will allow a challenger to gain attention.
Like Pilette, he says Quebec solidaire is strong on those issues and also represents the clearest alternative to Legault’s centre-right party, although he notes that the party’s base is made up of young people – a demographic that doesn’t always vote.
Belanger stated that election day results could be more close than the polls show. Quebec’s first-past-the post system tends to introduce “disproportionality” that is exacerbated in ridings with three- or four-way races, he added.
While he expects Legault’s party to win, he says the CAQ’s majority may be smaller than polls suggest. He added that some voters who don’t agree with Legault may vote strategically and choose to support the leader they feel is most capable of challenging him.
Lamoureux, for his part, says Quebec solidaire has a ceiling of about 15 per cent of votes due to its “communitarian and very racialist” left-wing policies, such as its insistence on the existence of systemic racism _ a concept that the CAQ denies exists in Quebec.
He says Quebec could be heading toward an election result the province hasn’t seen in more than 100 years: where no opposition party receives more than 20 per cent of the vote. Lamoureux stated that the opposition must hope for strong performances at the leaders debates in order to move the needle.
This report was published by The Canadian Press Aug. 30, 2022.
Read the full article here
