In Senate Battle, Democrats Defy Biden’s Low Standing (for Now)

PHOENIX — In a Senate split 50-50, Democrats on the campaign trail and in Congress have zero margin for error as the party tries to navigate a hostile political environment defined chiefly by President Biden’s albatross-like approval ratings.

But with the Senate battlefield map mostly set after primaries in Arizona and Missouri this past week, Democratic candidates are outperforming Mr. Biden — locked in tight races or ahead in almost every key contest.

Washington: Senate Democrats are racing for support. They are pressing for a vote on Monday on a broad legislative package that is their last chance to remain in power before the midterms.

However, the history of unpopular presidents and midterms is working against them. With the fall election less than 100 days away, the defining question of the struggle for the Senate is how long Democrats in crucial races can continue to outpace Mr. Biden’s unpopularity — and by how much.

“That’s the billion-dollar question,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster who has studied the pattern of how a president’s support has affected Senate races over the last decade. His findings: Precious few candidates can outrun the president by more than a half-dozen percentage points — a worrisome fact for Democrats when Mr. Biden’s approval has fallen below 40 percent nationally.

“The president’s approval rating acts as a weight on their party’s nominee,” Mr. Blizzard said. “Gravity is going to apply at some point.”

So far, Senate Democrats have been buoyed by a cash edge, some strong candidates and the fact that Republicans have nominated a series of first-time candidates — Herschel Walker in Georgia, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona — who have struggled to find their footing, have faced questions about their past and have generally been unable to keep the 2022 campaign focused on unhappiness with Democratic rule in Washington.

Republican strategists involved in Senate races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, say that those three candidates — all of whom were endorsed by Donald J. Trump in the primaries — are falling short of expectations.

Democratic strategists hope the domestic package of climate and tax policies they are aiming to push through Congress, along with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, could reinvigorate a demoralized party base that is particularly displeased with Mr. Biden. Republicans insist that passage major legislation such as the 2010 Affordable Care Act could galvanize their side and further tie Democratic senators to Mr. Biden’s minds.

The race for control of the Senate is occurring chiefly in more than a half-dozen presidential swing states, making Mr. Biden’s approval ratings all the more relevant. Republicans must win one seat to control the Senate, while four incumbent Democrats face difficult races. Three Republican retirements have opened up opportunities for Democrats. A Republican senator is running for reelection in Wisconsin. This state was won narrowly by Mr. Biden.

Republicans had one success Tuesday. Missourians rejected Eric Greitens’ Senate bid for a comeback. The scandal-plagued former governor was defeated by Eric Schmitt who is now the favorite.

The best case scenario for Democrats is that they retain control or net a few seats if the environment changes. In the worst case, however, support for Mr. Biden collapses and Democrats lose approximately half a dozen seats, including in bluer states such as Colorado and Washington.

Republicans see Mr. Biden for now as their not-so secret weapon. Some ads are literally morphing Senate Democrats’ faces into his, part of a brutal planned blitz of ads to yoke incumbents to their pro-Biden voting records.

“What we call the 97 percent club — that they voted for this 97 percent of the time,” said Steven Law, who leads the main Senate Republican super PAC, which has $141 million in television ads reserved this fall.

With a strong job report on Friday, long-stalled legislation moving and gas prices on the decline — albeit from record highs — it is possible that Mr. Biden’s support could tick upward.

Contrary to the House, where Republicans have excitedly been hyping up a coming red tide, Senator Mitch McConnell, from Kentucky, has sounded more like an army general. This lowered expectations Wednesday on Fox News.

“When the Senate race smoke clears, we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with either us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly,” he said.

In the four states with the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire — survey data from Morning Consult shows a breathtaking decline in Mr. Biden’s approval ratings since early 2021. His net approval ratings have plummeted by 27, 20, 27, and 24 percentage points in these states. Despite this, all four Democratic senators still enjoy favorable ratings.

“Voters are dealing with the Democratic candidates separately from President Biden,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster. “We see the incumbents’ ratings going up even in places where the president’s numbers are going down, which is a very unusual midterm dynamic.”

The summer of ‘bed-wetting’

Some Democrats in the most contested races have also developed unique brands to protect themselves.

Arizona senator Mark Kelly is an astronaut and husband to former Representative Gabby Giffords. Kelly survived a shooting that took place in 2011. In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, who utilized an affable beagle in his last race, is well known as the pastor of Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic nominee is John Fetterman, the 6-foot-8, tattooed lieutenant governor, who has leaned into his not-your-typical-politician look.

“The Democrats do have some good candidates,” conceded Corry Bliss, a veteran Republican strategist. “But the key point is very simple: If Joe Biden has an approval rating in the 30s, what Raphael Warnock says or does is irrelevant. Because he’s going to lose. Period.”

Republicans, Mr. Bliss said, were suffering through a cyclical “summer of bed-wetting” before a fall landslide.

Some Republicans are concerned that their party has chosen some less-than-generic candidates in important states.

Walker, a former football star, avoided primary debates. He has been plagued in Georgia by his exaggerations, falsehoods and the emergence of children he had with whom he isn’t in regular contact. To help him, a team of national operatives was sent.

After a difficult primary, Dr. Oz, the television personality has struggled to consolidate Republican support as Democrats attack his New Jersey residency. Even though Mr. Fetterman has not held an event public since his stroke in May, polls show him ahead.

Mr. Fetterman’s campaign has shifted its efforts almost entirely online, where Dr. Oz’s campaign has ceded the digital terrain when it comes to paid ads. Company records show that Dr. Oz has spent $0 in Facebook since May 1st and $22,000 on Google during the same time. Mr. Fetterman has spent approximately $1 million over that period.

Republicans remain optimistic about holding Senate seats for North Carolina and Florida in the current political climate. The party also sees Lt.-Governor in Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson will be up for reelection. Mandela Barnes was elected by Democrats to clear their primary field. She is seen as too liberal for the state.

Some even believe that Washington and Colorado might be competitive. In the latter state, Democrats spent millions of dollars unsuccessfully trying to prevent Joe O’Dea, a moderate businessman, from becoming the Republican nominee.

“I appreciate the advertising,” Mr. O’Dea said in an interview. “It got my name recognition up.”

The 2022 desert dynamics

Arizona is where the Senate dynamics are clearest. Arizona is a state that Mr. Biden won in 2020, but where polls show that he’s now unpopular.

He had already set out to tie Mr. Kelly and Mr. Biden even before Mr. Masters won Tuesday’s Republican nomination. In a speech to a pro-Trump gathering in downtown Phoenix on Monday, Mr. Masters slashed at Mr. Kelly’s moderate reputation and blamed him for approving spending that “caused this inflation.”

“What Biden and Harris and Mark Kelly are doing to this country — it makes me sick,” Mr. Masters said.

Mr. Kelly, though, has used his financial advantage — he had $24.8 million in the bank as of mid-July compared with $1.5 million for Mr. Masters — to run television ads for months positioning himself as a get-things-done centrist who whacks oil companies and his own party alike.

And in Mr. Masters, Republicans have a 36-year-old nominee who faces questions about his past comments and positions, including calling a notorious domestic terrorist, the Unabomber, an underrated thinker; questioning the United States’ involvement in World War II; and expressing openness to privatizing Social Security in a retiree-filled state.

Recent polls for the super PAC that supports Mr. Masters revealed that a majority disapprove of Mr. Biden. Mr. Masters was trailed by five points.

The survey suggested that Mr. Kelly’s chief vulnerability was his perceived proximity to Mr. Biden’s agenda, though the Masters campaign will most likely need outside groups to pay to make that case.

“I’ve got to raise money,” Mr. Masters said in a brief interview this week. “But what I’ve really got to just do is tell the truth. Tell the truth about his far-left voting record.”

Andy Surabian, a Republican strategist, advised a super PAC supporting Mr. Masters. He suggested that focusing on Democrats would be crucial for all Republicans. “You’re going to see all the incumbent Democrat senators who vote with Biden nearly 100 percent of the time get ruthlessly tied to those votes,” he said.

But Christina Freundlich, a Democratic consultant, said the “messier” slate of Republicans like Mr. Masters was making the 2022 campaign about both parties.

Ms. Freundlich, who worked on Terry McAuliffe’s unsuccessful bid for Virginia governor last year against Glenn Youngkin, a vest-clad Republican businessman, said the newly elevated Senate G.O.P. candidates were no Glenn Youngkins: “They have a lot more fringe views.”

Mr. Law, the Republican super PAC leader, said his group would re-evaluate the Senate landscape throughout August, looking for candidates with “enough money to connect directly with voters — and message discipline to focus on the issues that resonate.”

“Not every candidate can do that,” he said pointedly.

His group has secured $51.5 million in Arizona-Georgia television ads since September. However, Mr. Law didn’t commit to those full reservations. “We have more time to assess both of those,” he said, raising questions about the Masters campaign by dint of omission. “In Georgia, in particular, I’m seeing very positive signs of developments in the Walker camp.”

As in Georgia national operatives are now strengthening the Masters team, with a new general contractor as well as polling teams and media teams.

Shane GoldmacherReport from Phoenix, Maggie HabermanFrom New York.