On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, the US House Speaker, left Malaysia and was scheduled to visit Taiwan. This will escalate tensions with Beijing which claims Taiwan as its territory.
The plane carrying Pelosi and her delegation left from a Malaysian air force base after a brief stopover that included a lunch meeting with Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, an official said on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to release details to the media.
Pelosi is on an Asian tour this week that is being closely watched to see if she will defy China’s warnings against visiting Taiwan.
Although it was not clear where she was going from Malaysia, Taiwanese media reported that she would arrive Tuesday night. She will be the highest-ranking elected official to visit the United States in over 25 years.
The United Daily News, Liberty Times and China Times — Taiwan’s three largest national newspapers — cited unidentified sources as saying she would spend the night in Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment. Premier Su Tseng-chang didn’t explicitly confirm Pelosi’s visit, but said Tuesday that “any foreign guests and friendly lawmakers” are “very much welcome.”
China, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province to be annexed by force if necessary, has repeatedly warned of retaliation if Pelosi visits, saying its military will “never sit idly by.”
“The U.S. and Taiwan have colluded to make provocations first, and China has only been compelled to act out of self-defense,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told reporters Tuesday in Beijing.
Hua said China has been in constant communication with the U.S. and made clear “how dangerous it would be if the visit actually happens.”
Any countermeasures China take will be “justified and necessary” in the face of Washington’s “unscrupulous behavior,” she said.
China’s military threats have driven concerns of a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait, which separates the two sides, that could roil global markets and supply chains.
The White House on Monday decried Beijing’s rhetoric, saying the U.S. has no interest in deepening tensions with China and “will not take the bait or engage in saber rattling.”
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby underscored that the decision on whether to visit Taiwan was ultimately Pelosi’s. He noted that Congressmen have repeatedly visited the island over the past years.
Kirby said administration officials are concerned that Beijing could use the visit as an excuse to take provocative retaliatory steps, including military action such as firing missiles in the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan, or flying sorties into the island’s airspace and carrying out large-scale naval exercises in the strait.
“Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing U.S. policy into some sort of crisis or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” Kirby said.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also urged China to “act responsibly” if Pelosi proceeds with the visit.
“If the speaker does decide to visit, and China tries to create some kind of a crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that would be entirely on Beijing,” he told reporters at U.N. headquarters in New York. “We are looking for them, in the event she decides to visit, to act responsibly and not to engage in any escalation going forward.”
Officials from the United States have stated that the U.S. military would expand its movement of troops and assets in the Indo-Pacific region, if Pelosi visits Taiwan. According to officials speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was accompanied by its strike group in the Philippine Sea on Monday.
After a port stop in Singapore, the Reagan, USS Antietam (cruiser) and USS Higgins (destroyer) moved north to their homeport of Japan. The carrier is equipped with a variety of aircraft, including F/A-18 fighter and helicopter jets and sophisticated radar systems, as well as other weapons.
Tuesday’s warning from the Kremlin was also issued to the United States by warning them not to provoke China. This would increase tensions to dangerous levels.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that such a visit would be “extremely provocative,” adding that it would “exacerbate the situation in the region and fuel tensions.”
Speaking in a call with reporters, Peskov reaffirmed Russia’s “absolute solidarity” with China, noting that the issue of Taiwan is very sensitive for Beijing.
“Instead of dealing with this sensitivity with respect, the U.S. has regrettably chosen the path of confrontation,” he added.
“It will bring no good, we can only express regret,” said the Kremlin spokesperson.
Peskov’s comments reflected close ties between Moscow and Beijing, which have grown stronger since Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
China has pointedly refused to criticize Russia’s action, blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking Moscow, and has blasted punishing sanctions imposed on Moscow.
In recent years, Russia and China held a series of joint war exercises. These included naval drills and patrols of long-range bombers over both the Sea of Japan (East China Sea) and the Sea of Japan (Sea of Japan).
Last year, Russian troops were deployed to Chinese territory for joint maneuvers for the first time.
Even though Moscow and Beijing in the past rejected the possibility of forging a military alliance, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that such a prospect can’t be ruled out. He also pointed out that Russia has shared highly sensitive military technology with China which helped to increase its defense capability.
The risk of potential war games going awry heightened expectations that Wall Street would open lower on Tuesday, with futures for the Dow Jones industrials falling 0/5 per cent and futures for the S&P 500 declining 0.6 per cent.
“The first big relief point will be Pelosi’s safe arrival in Taiwan, followed by her safe departure,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
“No party wants a real war, but the risk of mishap or even aggressive war game escalation is real, which could always lead to a tactical mistake.”
After the Communists won a civil conflict on the mainland, Taiwan and China were split in 1949. The U.S. maintains informal relationships and defense ties to Taiwan, even though it recognizes Beijing’s government.
Beijing sees official American contact with Taiwan as encouragement to make the island’s decades-old de facto independence permanent, a step U.S. leaders say they don’t support. Pelosi, the head of one of the three branches of the U.S. Government, would be the highest ranking elected American official to visit Taiwan in the past decade since then-Speaker Newt Giingrich in 1997.
Pelosi started her Asian tour Monday in Singapore, in anticipation of her possible visit to Taiwan.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong “highlighted the importance of stable U.S.-China relations for regional peace and security” during talks with Pelosi, the city-state’s Foreign Ministry said. This was echoed by Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Tokyo, who said stable ties between the two rival powers “are extremely important for the international community as well.”
The Philippines urged the U.S. and China to be “responsible actors” in the region.
“It is important for the U.S. and China to ensure continuing communication to avoid any miscalculation and further escalation of tensions,” said Foreign Affairs spokesperson Teresita Daza.
China has been steadily increasing its diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan. China cut off all contact with Taiwan’s government in 2016 after President Tsai Ing-wen refused to endorse its claim that the island and mainland together make up a single Chinese nation, with the Communist regime in Beijing being the sole legitimate government.
On Thursday, Pelosi is to meet with South Korean National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin Pyo in Seoul for talks on security in the Indo-Pacific region, economic cooperation and the climate crisis, according to Kim’s office. Pelosi is also scheduled to visit Japan but it is not known when.
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