Even though he knows Changi Prison is calling, Nick Leeson does not mention a negative view of south-east Asia in his memoir. His life in Watford was ruined by a life of drunken pub brawls. He got a job in Jakarta’s back-office at Barings Bank. A transfer to Singapore had made a rich man of the plasterer’s son. He couldn’t have kept his roguish trading secrets in a maturer market. And he couldn’t have won one so quickly.
Even though it is a generation later, I still recommend this region to western youth from the top of the Bangkok Standard Hotel. Before we get to the pull factor, let’s consider the push. A UK graduate is confronted with a nation in unmanaged decrepitude. One of the problems facing the US is its ever-fouler political system. “A good country,” says a Frenchman here of his homeland. “To visit.”
However, despair is not the only thing that can get you to where you want. Don’t mistake this case for south-east Asia (defined here as the Asean countries) for the usual one. I have too many ties in the Malay Peninsula alone to view the place as “exotic”. The lure is even more appealing than that. With its ambiguous geopolitical posture, this region is going to be what The Economist calls the “main zone of contention” between the US and China. Each superpower will flood it for decades with investments and official attention. Even without these feuding colossi a region so populous, and recently poor, would radiate potential. Living here will be like living in the center of the universe. I would liken Bangkok to mid-20th century Berlin if the difference in scale and energy were not so hopeless.
It is quite revealing to see the view from this tower with its spiral cavities. One of the largest US embassies is located down there, near Lumphini. It is here before it grows the 14-floor annexe that will be built in 2025. The commander of the Pacific Fleet of history’s mightiest navy is due in town.
Vietnam is home to many western supply chains that leave China. Its government has sent officials there to meet the Quad, which ties America to India and Japan. Last year, the lease was signed for a new US Embassy in Hanoi. The projected cost of the lease is $1.2bn. It is likely that the region will be courted by China, even if it is just to remain in the equivocal group. That is the point. The inflow of American cash could be torrential. The opportunities that could result could be equally great.
My liberal conscience has been a bit strained when I gave this advice to the youth. It is not only in its outward dealings that south-east Asia hedges. With its “managed” democracies, neither the Chinese nor the American modes of government carry the day. To say that a young Brit may be irritated by some laws implies that all locals will obey. (They don’t. Pyra, a Thai singer now living in London, puts her dissent to song. Let’s not forget about the expat temperament. Since when has high principle deterred someone from a big chance abroad? Most people who try their luck in this country will not be bothered by un-Jeffersonian politics if it threatens property.
Bangkok is almost Hanoi’s food paradise if you compare its quality to its price. I delay my return flight by a few nights to keep eating. I am forbidden to reveal the name of the mysteriously empty restaurant that wows me for the equivalent of a few dollars down Sukhumvit Soi 31 by a local friend. With half a dozen big cities within a short haul of each other, south-east Asia also affords at least an approximation of Europe’s geographic concentration of fun.
But all of this was true in Leeson’s time. The difference was that China was still poor, and America was still Europe-facing. A merely dynamic region has become a key part of the planet’s future thanks to significant change in both these areas. Add in the 1990s optimism in the wealthy world and I expect westerners to seek out fortune and not pleasure. Even those who don’t find theirs will see a century unfold.
Email Janan at [email protected]
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